25th September 2018 - Hippocrates' Sleeve - Buy gold (courtesy of free puts from positioning and the PBOC)

Gold and gold miners tick all the boxes we care about when evaluating a trade idea. The commodity is heavily underowned (-2.9 SD), and stretched positioning has proven to be a good contrarian indicator in the past. It’s highly macro-driven, and in recent months has become almost a singular bet on USDCNY. Catalysts for a near-term reversal are aplenty. And it offers protection against one of the bigger risks I see in the market – US tariff-driven inflationary pressures. Lets start with positioning...